Any forecast for 2018 will fall through the cracks if it is not preceded by an adequate assessment of the key events of the outgoing year.
2017, as you know, passed under the sign of the 100th anniversary of the Great Russian Revolution. However, an adequate and objective assessment of this event (not the anniversary, but the World Revolution as the greatest world event of the 20th century) did not happen in Russia - which means that forecasts will also be lame. They're already limping. Thus, armchair political scientists, who were let off the leash by numerous enemies of Russia on the eve of the 2018 elections, claim that in February the West will seize the foreign accounts of Putin’s friends (oh, horror!), after which the country will face a coup d’etat (or Maidan - there is not much difference) and collapse of Russia.
In turn, pro-Kremlin political scientists and propagandists chant in unison - “you can’t wait!” and they call the main event of the coming year in the Russian Federation the presidential elections, which, in fact, are of a technical nature, have nothing to do with essential processes and do not change anything at all either in our country or in the world.
The “argument” in favor of the assertion that after being re-elected for another presidential term, Vladimir Putin will begin to reboot the system in Russia does not stand up to any criticism, since nothing prevents the head of state from starting a large-scale renovation in the Russian Federation at any time, in any direction and for any reason .
In a word, it’s time to step aside from the journalistic hype and turn to the analysis of ESSENTIAL processes - what is actually happening today in the very structure of Russian society and in the minds of the majority of Russians.
Only an objective analysis - without propaganda and mischief - will allow us to understand what awaits Russia and each of us in 2018 and after it. Ultimately, the main addressee of our attempts to seriously understand the present and future are not the Yankees or Bandera’s followers, but we ourselves - the uncertainty of Russian citizens about the future.
Let me remind you that official political experts reduce the key events in Russia in the past year mainly to the actions of the authorities in the far abroad - to the victory of the Russian Federation in Syria, although, in essence, major events in the Middle East are just beginning, since in 2017 only the first four-year period announced at the end of 2013 ended, that is, at the time of the creation of the ISIS group banned in the Russian Federation and the beginning of the Maidan in Ukraine, the so-called “Battle of the End” (in our terminology - the global war of the West against competitive civilizations). And in the coming years this war will only intensify.
In a word, the main world events in 2017 did not take place in Syria at all: the success of Russian aerospace forces in this country is only a consequence of those planetary processes that are somehow not usually noticed. The consequence, and not the cause, of these processes is The “main world event” of the outgoing year is the election of Donald Trump as US President.
Let me note once again (the author of these lines recorded the thesis below in one and a half dozen articles) that the main world event of 2017 was the change of the world hegemon: exactly 100 years after the Great Russian Revolution, in October 2017 it became China in alliance with those world oligarchic groups that the year before brought a new owner to the White House.
In this sense, over the past four years, Russia has been fighting rearguard (by geopolitical standards) battles on the “distant approaches” to the Russian Federation for the right not to fall out of the list of participants in the new redivision of the world. The main battles took place between the leading transnational oligarchic groups that began the said redistribution.
In this context, the main event of the outgoing year in Russia was obviously the official transition of the ruling class of the Russian Federation from neoliberal to protective positions in alliance with the new world hegemon - and now in 2108 we will see a decisive consolidation of this trend, and not at all a renovation of the country and, alas, not a change of elites and models of economic development.
All somewhat resonant events of 2017 in Russia that carry an ideological load(conflicts around St. Isaac's Cathedral and the Jock Sturges photo exhibition, scandals with the Gogol Center, the film "Matilda" and the ballet "Nureyev", installation of the Wall of Sorrow in Moscow, a benefit performance of a boy from Urengoy, riots in the Yeltsin Center, the attack of the "Congress of the Intelligentsia" on the head The FSB, the humiliating decision of the IOC regarding the Russian national team, etc.) are a consequence of this transition.
All these and other similar events in modern Russia fit into the framework of three interconnected and skillfully directed (including from abroad) processes: de-Sovietization, de-Russification and de-Christianization.
Every time the result of artificially caused confrontations in Russian society in the past year was the defeat of the statists in power, and the defeat of the left, Russians and Orthodox Christians in society. This, in fact, is what the growing protective trend in modern Russia is aimed at - to strengthen tendencies directly opposite to the former mainstream and to consolidate the dominant position in the Russian Federation of right-wing atheist-collaborators (conditional “Februaryists”), skillfully hiding behind patriotic rhetoric.
I will note in passing that “protection” in modern Russia should be understood not as the preservation of traditions, society, nation, family and state, but as the desire of the post-Soviet elites (who came to power in the wake of the destruction of the USSR and the sale of state assets) to preserve their privileged position with all its attributes : superpowers, fiefdoms, total corruption, irresponsibility, corruption, immorality, etc.
This new protective political force, supported by subjects that are competitive in relation to Russia, has now, for the most part, replaced the neoliberal skin with a state-patriotic one and has penetrated into all pores of Russian society, corrupting it from the inside.
This force sets up the authorities against Russians and Orthodox Christians, and tries to force Russians and Orthodox Christians to love the authorities and despise the people. The guards are depriving Russians of the right to revolution “here and now” with stories about the “horrors” of a century ago and, while erecting walls of grief over the innocent victims of the “Red Terror”, are actually concerned with only one thing - lest someone at the very top not the idea came to reconsider the results of privatization of the 90s or introduce a progressive tax on income and property.
The guards surrounded on all sides the President of Russia, the Patriarch and all those Russian political and spiritual leaders who are still keeping our country from civil war and final plunder.
At the same time, by the possible destruction of the Russian Federation, I do not mean the banal collapse of the country, but its sociocultural degradation, the transformation of a once powerful power into the territory of “yesterday”, into the periphery of several civilizations bordering Russia - Western European, American, Chinese, Islamic...
This is the goal of the Russian hybrid opponents of Russia, and so far they are coping with their tasks, since in 2017 - with all the successes of Russia on the foreign policy front - they managed to turn the situation inside Russia in their favor.
In 2012, Russian society was able to repel attacks by supporters of the famous punk prayer service in the Cathedral of Christ the Savior, at the beginning of 2015 - to stop Tannhäuser in Novosibirsk, and in 2016 - to achieve the dismantling of a memorial plaque in honor of Mannerheim in St. Petersburg. But already in 2017, it could not resist a whole wave of attacks across the entire cultural front (not to mention the social front). Decomposition and destruction have become the norm not only in theater and cinema: last year “dirty panties” became the calling card of the Tretyakov Gallery, and Fabre’s homoerotic performances became the hallmark of the Hermitage.
The destruction of the very foundations of Russian civilization by organizing new and powerful ideological attacks against it - with simultaneous desperate attempts by individual social groups to somehow resist them - this is what awaits Russia in 2018.
The civilizational foundations of the Russian world, alas, are almost destroyed, the matter is small: the legitimation in the Russian Federation of a new deviant consumer morality and destructive standards of behavior based on it. Here is the centenary since the start of the civil war in Russia. It will start again, in 2018, and this time it will be a hybrid one. And the attacking side will again be the “whites”, eager to establish in the Russian Federation a regime similar to Alexander Kerensky’s “Directory of Five”. And here the 100th anniversary of the birth of Alexander Solzhenitsyn (the celebration was launched several years ago at the government level) helps the “whites”.
Here I must make one digression and explain that last year Russia really held its own in the foreign policy field and even strengthened its military-political influence in the world. And this became an answer, for example, to Bandera’s cliques, their mantra that “Russia is about to fall apart.” At the same time, you need to understand that the Russian Federation as a state can exist indefinitely, but the people of Russia and what we call the Russian World can change beyond recognition in a fairly short time.
Thus, Ukraine, in just over 20 years, has turned from a prosperous Soviet and Russian, in its essence, republic into a fascist puppet Russophobic quasi-state. And if Russia in the future, from a civilization-type power that for a thousand years played the role of the anchor state of the Christian world, turns into some kind of analogue of modern Ukraine with a Februaryist, or even Vlasov ideology, will this mean that our country has survived?
No, it will be a fundamentally different country. A foreign country with a Crimea that is not ours, annexed by meanings and values hostile to historical Russia.
Ukraine was captured quickly and harshly - with a coup d'etat and subsequent punitive operations against dissenters, with torture and executions. Russia is being captured gradually - through the introduction of toxic ideas and values into its social body. That's why The civil war in the Russian Federation is unfolding primarily in the spheres of education and culture.
Today Russia is being trolled with sodomy shows, so that tomorrow we can replace the Victory Day on May 9 with the Day of Remembrance and Reconciliation on May 8, and the day after tomorrow we can throw Russian civilization as such into the dustbin of history.
This will be the defeat of our power - the loss of its civilizational essence, that is, itself.
Ideology is designed to provide legitimation for any processes, including destructive ones. In turn, the ideology of conservation is such a tricky thing, in which it is not at all necessary to demand from the authorities to remove Lenin’s body from the Mausoleum. To begin with, it is enough for destructive forces to set a group of liberal academicians of the Russian Academy of Sciences against the head of the FSB, after which the removal of the body of the leader of the world proletariat will be considered by the authorities as an absolutely organic move to “reconcile” the parties.
Vladimir Lepekhin
One of the frequently discussed topics in recent months in our country is the following topic: will Russia become the next target for the West after Syria and Iran, will Washington, London and other world capitals bless the flights of bombers carrying “freedom of speech” and “democracy” to towards Russian cities? And, as usual, society is divided into two parts, representatives of one of which are sure that talk about foreign aggression against Russia is nothing more than the dreams of the radical opposition, while representatives of the other, in contrast, talk about a real threat looming over Russia.
But if such a threat really exists, then it must have objective reasons. And, besides, aggression against our country must be expressed in some way, because with all the reverence of certain citizens for the forces of NATO aviation, it is obvious that the leaders of the North Atlantic Alliance clearly do not have the courage to give the order for an open attack on Russian territory, as happened, say, , with Libya.
If we talk about the reasons, the main one is as follows: a banal change of power with the opportunity to influence Russia’s internal policy from the outside, as happened in the late eighties and early nineties. At the same time, supporters of the idea of an indispensable change of power in the country work according to the classic principle of “black pr” - an idea that was once developed in the West and has been successfully working for decades. The idea in relation to modern Russia (as a special case) is that it is necessary by all means to bring to the surface all the negativity concerning the activities of the Russian authorities. At the same time, everything positive that has been achieved recently is stubbornly not commented on, and if it is commented on, it is with a clear touch of provocative rhetoric.
In order not to be unfounded, it is worth giving several examples of how a system aimed at the desire to solve Russia’s problems exclusively with the help of “Western support” works in our country. To do this, let’s turn to quotes from a certain segment of modern media, which are “raised” on the idea of waiting for saving missionaries from somewhere on other worlds...
Example one: The radio station “Echo of Moscow” conducted a remarkable survey on August 11, 2012. Radio listeners were asked which country they consider to have started the war in South Ossetia?
An amazing thing is happening. Dozens of international commissions worked on this issue. Even Western journalists and politicians, who can hardly be blamed for their great love for Russia, managed to provide materials on who started the war on 08/08/08 and in which offices its plans were developed. During a number of meetings of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, the result related to the aggression ordered by Saakashvili was announced after a long independent investigation. However, “Echo of Moscow” decided after 4 years to let listeners dream up (otherwise it’s difficult to say) on a given topic. And the listeners, we must give them their due, accepted the idea of the Echo management with a bang. As a result, it turned out that about two-thirds of the listeners of this radio station believe that it was the Russian Federation that started the war in South Ossetia...
In this regard, we can expect a continuation of the “victorious” march of such surveys on radio stations. Isn’t it an option for “Echo” to ask listeners the question: “Who really started the Second World War?” In this case, the phrase “in fact” will be highlighted in a special way. You don’t have to go to a fortune teller to find out the “correct” answer: naturally, the majority of Echo listeners will name the Soviet Union as the country that started the big war, and for the sake of historical decency, 20-25% will vote “for” Nazi Germany.
After getting acquainted with the results of such publications, it becomes more than obvious that the disease called “the search for historical truth on the path to all-conquering democracy in Russia” has seriously affected our society. After all, it has now become possible to present the historical “truth” the way the reader, viewer, or listener wishes. To do this, you can invite a dozen “independent” experts, “autonomous” scientists and other people to a conversation, whose words will be presented as the ultimate truth.
And if the majority, after “meetings” with such experts, acquires the confidence that it is Russia that is to blame for all mortal sins, if only the Russian authorities are “destroying” the people and the Fatherland, then after this the desire grows to “reach out” to the West with a request to organize something similar to the Libyan scenario.
Example two: Novaya Gazeta categorically declares that the Russians are not satisfied with the medal standings of the Russian team at the London Olympics. Who exactly is not happy? For some reason, the newspaper does not provide such data, but this, apparently, is not necessary... They are not happy, you understand, and that’s all - it would seem that there is nothing more to talk about... But Novaya “gives the opportunity” to readers to speculate on the topic of “hard conclusions” after the Russian “failure”. The result of this entire discussion is approximately the following thought: Russia loses miserably everywhere, the United States and other representatives of the “progressive” West always win (well, and China benefits, supposedly, from the fact that there is a rigid and enslaving training system, where there is rigid political power “ rules” in each of the areas of activity). They say that only the democratic West in this world is ready to offer us the only possible option for success.
These two examples are just a small part of the stream of what “exposes” Russian inconsistency and aggressiveness. And how much more about “kickbacks”, “cuttings”, “PZhiV” and everything else that strengthens the confidence of the average oppositionist in the need to start a patriotic war with the support of foreign “friends of Russia”.
For obvious reasons, the idea of the overwhelming superiority of Western civilization over us - the poor, unwashed and illiterate - is gradually penetrating the heads of those who are ready to perceive information exclusively in the form in which it is presented. And from this perception it is not far from the formation of those very “opposition fronts” that declare slogans about liberal values, crystal-clear patriotism and opposition to “despotism.”
But how can these values get into our country if we have millions of “mediocrities” who do not want to realize that an exclusively radical change of power in Russia in the direction of a purely “democratic” vector of Western ideals is the main Russian way out of the crisis...
Most of all, Russia’s “failures” as a reason for foreign activity in the Russian Federation are ready to be discussed by those who not so long ago, excuse me, “fleeed” to the West. And this is natural - you need to at least somehow justify yourself to the Russians who remained in Russia, no matter what. From a distance the problems are more visible...
It turns out that we need a “small victorious war” in which “abroad will help us”...
Well, since a real war with Russia is a very doubtful matter for the West, to say the least (even based on historical factors), we will have to promote the idea of an internal war. This war is usually called civil.
By the way, many publications (for example, Sibirsk.org) quite openly call for the start of a new civil war in Russia. According to the latest “experts,” everything in Russia needs to be broken again and a new society needs to be built anew, because the society that exists in its current version is supposedly incapable of participating in the development of the country. At the same time, the same people speak with extreme negativity about the revolutionary events in Russia in 1917, when the same ideas were embodied by slightly different forces, but with completely overlapping technologies.
It turns out that that revolutionary activity (100 years ago) is disgusting and counterproductive, but the “ferment” of today is an exclusively beneficial trend. An amazing position... The presence of “good” and “bad” revolutions is something new for the socio-political vocabulary.
Apparently, a “good” revolution is practically not even a violent change of power, as a result of which the country is governed by a person who reports weekly on the work done to Washington or London. An example of “good” revolutions can be called in this case the coming to power of such lumps of modern politics as Mikheil Saakashvili, Viktor Yushchenko and a number of other “accountable” gentlemen.
But for revolutionary ferment to begin in the country, society must be carefully “prepared.” And this “artillery preparation” has already begun in our country. And it didn’t start today.
To “warm up” social groups, a completely shabby method is used - to show how bad and hopeless everything is in Russia. In this regard, “revolutionary fronts” are open in different directions. Firstly, corruption... But the whole problem for the ideological inspirers of the new Russian revolution is that it is difficult to surprise Russian society with the word “corruption”, because it did not arise in the early 2000s. Russian corruption (as a historical phenomenon) will give many times a head start to any revolution, will catch up, and then give again...
Realizing that the topic of corruption needs to be raised, let’s say, from a different angle, modern oppositionists say: they say, look at the West - corruption has been suppressed and debunked there, but what about in Russia (or, as the oppositionists usually say, “in Russia”)? .. To this we can say approximately the following: corruption feels great both in the West and in the East and in general, anywhere. It’s just that in the United States it’s not called “corruption.” Why call a spade a spade if businessmen who support high-ranking officials, and therefore the officials themselves, may suffer as a result...
Freedom of speech in the West is such that even journalists are very reluctant to use the term in question. American journalist Barbara Ehrenreich speaks about this, in particular, in one of her articles. She states that in American society a stereotype is deliberately formed that corruption is somewhere abroad, but not in the United States. Meanwhile, the same Ehrenreich states that the lion's share of financial investments in US presidential campaigns is money from Wall Street, which itself literally drowned in corruption schemes and plans for money laundering through “democratized countries” (Iraq, Libya, Egypt, etc.) , and not only through these states.
Another front of the ideologists of the new Russian revolution is the infringement of the rights and freedoms of Russian citizens. They say that the new “anti-people” laws adopted by the authorities create a favorable field for supporting the “Putin regime.”
But if so, then you need to be completely honest. But aren’t these same Russian laws copied from Western versions? Isn’t there a law in the United States of America that labels organizations that receive funding from abroad as “foreign agents”? Isn’t there a fight against the spread of child pornography and extremism in the UK and other democratic countries?.. It turns out that Russia itself seems to be adopting that same progressive Western experience, but in this case, you see, there was no need to adopt it... Well, then this banality of double standards is the main achievement of the democratic West.
In conclusion, it is worth saying that we are all well aware of the problems in our country. However, this does not give anyone a reason, through savoring the exclusively negative features of socio-political life, to try to again pit different strata of Russian society against each other. These problems are completely solvable without revolutionary marches.
Well, if someone has an idea in their head that all the country’s problems need to be solved exclusively with the help of revolution, civil war, violence, blood and an endless desire to curry favor with foreign countries, then such an idea is strange and looks like a sign of a serious human illness, who expresses it (the idea) ...
I was asked very often: Will there be a civil war in Russia?
Previously answered: Possible, but not advisable.
Now I answer: She is already coming.
Show in full…
You just need to realize it. What is a civil war? Did you think thatonly "reds against whites". No.
This is a war of some citizens of the country against others. And it doesn't matter how. It doesn't matter what methods are used.
Once upon a time it was ideological. Opinion versus opinion. Word against word. Then the authorities involved riot police in this war.
Then the courts. Then again the riot police and special equipment. Now internal troops and military equipment are also being used against citizens.
The civil war in Russia is already underway. You just need to realize it. Yes. It is not yet as bloody as it could be. But it’s no longer bloodless. This war already has casualties. There are hundreds arrested, imprisoned and even killed. There are beaten and maimed, intimidated and those who fled the country...
The war is already underway. Realize this.
Our power has gone out of the right field. And everyone who advocates compliance with the law was declared outlawed. Criminals. Our valiant riot police and our valiant national guard do not protect citizens. They defend power...
Our government is involving not only security forces in this war, but also ordinary citizens. Constantly instilling in them through the media that those who are against the government are against the country. Outlaw. Traitors. Traitors to the Motherland. Setting some citizens of the country against others. Instilling in them that they want a civil war.
But without explaining that she is already on her way.
And she's already coming. And there are already those killed in this war. There are not many of them, but they already exist.
The trick is that the battlefields are slightly shifted. Protesters are fighting for the observance of laws and for individual freedom. The authorities are fighting for only one thing - to maintain power.
When their fields converge, then the real meat grinder will begin. Then that classic civil war will begin, which everyone understands precisely as a civil war.
To do this, you just need to shift to the field of power and start fighting for power. Not for compliance with laws, democratic values, freedom, “for all the good against all the bad.” Namely for power.
I'm afraid it won't work any other way.
And, as I see it, the authorities don’t want it any other way.
That's the only way, guys.
Our government does not want to leave. This is primary. Everything else is secondary.
Non-compliance with laws, corruption, bribery, nepotism, cutting the dough - this is secondary. Because this is precisely why they came to power.
Primary is the power itself. The loss of the primary for them automatically entails the loss of the secondary. And many people took a very long time to get to the primary one. It was difficult. Stepping over laws, breaking laws. If not by killing, then by ordering murders.
You can't scare someone like that with roses or sneakers on their shoulders.
Your war is lost. You are asking the impossible from them. What? Just obey the laws?
They don't give a damn about these laws. They now write the laws themselves. And not for myself. For you. And they don’t give a damn about new laws. And they did not come to power to obey the laws.
And you are already being imprisoned under these new laws. Some for insulting the feelings of believers, some for reposting, some for a picture, some for a poem...
The war is already underway. Realize this and move to the battlefield. And the battlefield here is power. Fight for power.
All. There is no other way out.
Mikhail Ezhov
The main topic of last Tuesday was the beginning of the active phase of the “counter-terrorist operation” in the East of Ukraine, announced by the Kyiv impostors. Everyone is monitoring the movement of troops, who is moving tanks where, where and when the assault will take place, etc., etc. Will there be a civil war? However, people listen to the media, read loud statements from Kyiv, but few people think about who will fight for the new Kyiv government? And who needs it anyway? A semi-mythical image of some Banderaites from Western Ukraine immediately arises. The main thing in any war is motivation, and somehow we managed to convince all the people that in this West of Ukraine and elsewhere there is a desire to fight. The public confuses the willingness to support the slogans of the Maidan and the desire to fight with people who have their own slogans.
We watch TV footage, and we don’t see any motivation from the military gathered to storm Donbass. In general, there is no gunpowder. What is really happening there in Ukraine, including in its West? What do people really breathe? In fact, no one really thought about it. But in vain, the picture would have become different. Reading the press:
04/15/2014, Interfax, 16:29, Lvov - Senior cadets of the Academy of Ground Forces of Ukraine on Tuesday morning were assembled on alert, they were given weapons, ammunition, individual medical packages, and after formation they left Lvov in cars, the parents of the cadets told reporters . Later it became known that they were heading to the Donetsk region. In a conversation with journalists, the parents of the cadets expressed concern that “the children were actually sent to the civil war in the eastern regions of the country.” Relatives of the cadets, having united in a parent committee, held a spontaneous meeting at the gates of the academy, at which they declared that “they will try in every possible way to prevent the boys from participating in the war.”
Traditionally, the Lviv region is considered the basis of the electoral base of various types of Yatsenyuks and Tyagniboks. In theory, crowds of volunteers should now come from there, ready to suppress the uprising in the East. But as we see, there are no volunteers. People are being dragged to war by force, especially cadets from military schools. And naturally, people resist this. In reality, in Lviv there live normal people, absorbed in their own problems, who have a great desire to integrate into the West. But no one has the desire to fight for something there.
Let’s simulate the situation from the other side: in Lviv, a “gang of separatists” seized the Regional State Administration, armed themselves with grenade launchers and demanded independence or the annexation of the city to Poland. Now let’s imagine the Donetsk miners and metallurgists who, having heard about this on the radio, immediately ran to the military registration and enlistment offices to die for the indivisibility of the “independence”. In order not to be unfounded, we even called people we knew living in Ukraine, asking them if they would go to the military registration and enlistment office or not. Everyone greeted such a proposal with uproarious laughter, because the average resident of Donbass doesn’t care whether Galicia will be part of Ukraine, part of Poland, or become a new state in the United States. People living their own lives and their own problems are deeply indifferent to who goes where. But when they are already dragging him somewhere, promising to close the only enterprise in the city, raising taxes, tariffs, etc. - here the person will not even get to the military registration and enlistment office, but will immediately grab a sawn-off shotgun and will shoot right out of the window at the supporters of European integration. in general this is what happens.
Moreover, there is a suspicion that Western Ukraine is not only passive to the military calls of the Kyiv impostors, but also hates them. At least for the murder of the same Sashko Muzychko. As we predicted - if Mr. Muzychko was Robin Hood for the locals during his lifetime, then after his death he is like a saint in Rivne. Every day people bring truckloads of flowers to his grave, pilgrims go to pray. And the people love Sashko not because Sashko really didn’t like Muscovites, but because most of all Sashko didn’t like commies, commies, cops, prosecutors and officials, each of whom in Rovno feared Sashko more than their direct boss in Kyiv and paid him tribute weekly. And Sashko honestly sent this money to support the organization; he didn’t even have a car. And this man was killed by Kyiv impostors, who are now calling for them to fight for them. Who needs it in Western Ukraine? How they feel about this attempt to drag their children into the war is clear from the behavior of the parents in Lvov. And these are the people who sent their children to study to become professional soldiers. What can we say about the rest? Do they need it?
The last hope of the drowning impostors is the United States, which will start a nuclear war with Russia for “indivisible Ukraine.” But the impostors must be disappointed: no one will start anything for the sake of distant Ukraine in the United States, as clearly evidenced by the story of the US destroyer in the Black Sea, over which an old Russian bomber made a couple of circles. Despite the monstrous armament of this ship, capable of destroying an entire air army of much more modern aircraft than the Su-24, the Americans stained their white uniform with shit, because they really shit themselves from fear. 27 crew members went ashore in the nearest port, having retired from the Navy, psychologists are working with the rest.
As reported “And although the Pentagon promised to increase the insurance amounts for military personnel from $1 million to $3 million, few people were reassured by this. There is little chance of surviving on the high seas and then receiving an insurance payment. But a dead man doesn’t need money.”
And we do not condemn these people, because service is service, but they did not enter into a contract with the Navy for death. And if a US Navy sailor values his simple life so much, how highly does American senators value it? And nuclear war is such a thing that senators may survive in bunkers, but they will not outlive others for long. Radiation is no joke. And all in the name of what? In the name of “indivisible Ukraine,” for which no one in Ukraine wants to fight? Perhaps among the 42 million subjects of Mr. Turchinov there are a couple hundred such idiots, but among the elite of the United States - certainly not.
Hence, there is no doubt that the people who stand up for their rights will win. It’s too late for Kyiv to come to an agreement with the East of Ukraine, but it’s time to stock up on women’s dresses for the Turchinov-Yatsenyuks in order to run when the people come for them. But there will be no civil war, because the whole of Ukraine, when it understands where the impostors are pushing them, will oppose them. Here is our analysis.
General Gleb Shcherbatov and the analytical department of the ARI
How much the people in the East feel they are right can be seen when people with bare hands stop a 50-ton tank with one voice.
The Russian Civil War is an armed confrontation in 1917-1922. organized military-political structures and state entities, conventionally defined as “white” and “red,” as well as national-state entities on the territory of the former Russian Empire (bourgeois republics, regional state entities). Spontaneously emerging military and socio-political groups, often referred to as “third force” (rebel groups, partisan republics, etc.), also took part in the armed confrontation. Also, foreign states (referred to as “interventionists”) participated in the civil confrontation in Russia.
Periodization of the Civil War
There are 4 stages in the history of the Civil War:
First stage: summer 1917 - November 1918 - formation of the main centers of the anti-Bolshevik movement
Second stage: November 1918 - April 1919 - the beginning of the Entente intervention.
Reasons for intervention:
Deal with Soviet power;
Protect your interests;
Fear of socialist influence.
Third stage: May 1919 - April 1920 - simultaneous struggle of Soviet Russia against the White armies and Entente troops
Fourth stage: May 1920 - November 1922 (summer 1923) - defeat of the white armies, end of the civil war
Background and reasons
The origin of the Civil War cannot be reduced to any one cause. It was the result of deep political, socio-economic, national and spiritual contradictions. The potential for public discontent during the First World War and the devaluation of the values of human life played an important role. The agrarian-peasant policy of the Bolsheviks (the introduction of the Podkom Pod and food appropriation system) also played a negative role. The Bolshevik political doctrine, according to which civil war is a natural outcome of the socialist revolution, caused by the resistance of the overthrown ruling classes, also contributed to the civil war. On the initiative of the Bolsheviks, the All-Russian Constituent Assembly was dissolved, and the multi-party system was gradually eliminated.
The actual defeat in the war with Germany, the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk led to the Bolsheviks being accused of the “destruction of Russia.”
The right of peoples to self-determination, proclaimed by the new government, and the emergence of many independent state entities in different parts of the country were perceived by supporters of “One, Indivisible” Russia as a betrayal of its interests.
Dissatisfaction with the Soviet regime was also expressed by those who opposed its demonstrative break with the historical past and with ancient traditions. The anti-church policy of the Bolsheviks was especially painful for millions of people.
The civil war took various forms, including uprisings, isolated armed clashes, large-scale operations involving regular armies, guerrilla warfare, and terror. The peculiarity of the Civil War in our country was that it turned out to be extremely long, bloody, and unfolded over a vast territory.
Chronological framework
Individual episodes of the Civil War took place already in 1917 (February events of 1917, the July “semi-uprising” in Petrograd, Kornilov’s speech, October battles in Moscow and other cities), and in the spring and summer of 1918 it acquired a large-scale, front-line character .
It is not easy to determine the final boundary of the Civil War. Front-line military operations on the territory of the European part of the country ended in 1920. But then there were also massive peasant uprisings against the Bolsheviks, and performances by Kronstadt sailors in the spring of 1921. Only in 1922-1923. The armed struggle in the Far East ended. This milestone can generally be considered the end of a large-scale Civil War.
Features of armed confrontation during the Civil War
Military operations during the Civil War differed significantly from previous periods. It was a time of unique military creativity that broke the stereotypes of troop command and control, the army recruitment system, and military discipline. The greatest successes were achieved by the military leader who commanded in a new way, using all means to achieve the task. The Civil War was a war of maneuver. Unlike the period of “positional war” of 1915-1917, there were no continuous front lines. Cities, villages, and villages could change hands several times. Therefore, active, offensive actions, caused by the desire to seize the initiative from the enemy, were of decisive importance.
The fighting during the Civil War was characterized by a variety of strategies and tactics. During the establishment of Soviet power in Petrograd and Moscow, street fighting tactics were used. In mid-October 1917, the Military Revolutionary Committee created in Petrograd under the leadership of V.I. Lenin and N.I. Podvoisky developed a plan to capture the main city facilities (telephone exchange, telegraph, stations, bridges). Fighting in Moscow (October 27 - November 3, 1917, old style), between the forces of the Moscow Military Revolutionary Committee (leaders - G.A. Usievich, N.I. Muralov) and the Public Security Committee (commander of the Moscow Military District, Colonel K.I. Ryabtsev and the head of the garrison, Colonel L.N. Treskin) were distinguished by the offensive of the Red Guard detachments and soldiers of the reserve regiments from the outskirts to the city center, occupied by the cadets and the White Guard. Artillery was used to suppress white strongholds. Similar tactics of street fighting were used during the establishment of Soviet power in Kyiv, Kaluga, Irkutsk, and Chita.
Formation of the main centers of the anti-Bolshevik movement
Since the beginning of the formation of units of the White and Red armies, the scale of military operations has expanded. In 1918, they were carried out mainly along railway lines and amounted to the capture of large junction stations and cities. This period was called “echelon war.”
In January-February 1918, Red Guard units under the command of V.A. advanced along the railways. Antonov-Ovseenko and R.F. Sivers to Rostov-on-Don and Novocherkassk, where the forces of the Volunteer Army were concentrated under the command of generals M.V. Alekseeva and L.G. Kornilov.
In the spring of 1918, units of the Czechoslovak Corps formed from prisoners of war of the Austro-Hungarian army took action. Located in echelons along the Trans-Siberian Railway from Penza to Vladivostok, the corps led by R. Gaida, Y. Syrov, S. Chechek was subordinate to the French military command and was sent to the Western Front. In response to demands for disarmament, the corps overthrew Soviet power in Omsk, Tomsk, Novonikolaevsk, Krasnoyarsk, Vladivostok and throughout the entire territory of Siberia adjacent to the Trans-Siberian Railway during May-June 1918.
In the summer-autumn of 1918, during the 2nd Kuban campaign, the Volunteer Army captured the junction stations of Tikhoretskaya, Torgovaya, and Armavir and Stavropol actually decided the outcome of the operation in the North Caucasus.
The initial period of the Civil War was associated with the activities of the underground centers of the White movement. In all major cities of Russia there were cells associated with the former structures of military districts and military units located in these cities, as well as with underground organizations of monarchists, cadets and Socialist Revolutionaries. In the spring of 1918, on the eve of the performance of the Czechoslovak Corps, an officer underground operated in Petropavlovsk and Omsk under the leadership of Colonel P.P. Ivanov-Rinova, in Tomsk - Lieutenant Colonel A.N. Pepelyaev, in Novonikolaevsk - Colonel A.N. Grishina-Almazova.
In the summer of 1918, General Alekseev approved a secret regulation on the recruitment centers of the Volunteer Army created in Kyiv, Kharkov, Odessa, and Taganrog. They transmitted intelligence information, sent officers across the front line, and were also supposed to oppose the Soviet government as White Army units approached the city.
A similar role was played by the Soviet underground, which was active in the White Crimea, the North Caucasus, Eastern Siberia and the Far East in 1919-1920, creating strong partisan detachments that later became part of the regular units of the Red Army.
The beginning of 1919 marks the end of the formation of the White and Red armies.
The Workers' and Peasants' Red Army included 15 armies, covering the entire front in the center of European Russia. The highest military leadership was concentrated under the Chairman of the Revolutionary Military Council of the Republic (RVSR) L.D. Trotsky and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Republic, former Colonel S.S. Kameneva. All issues of logistical support for the front, issues of regulating the economy on the territory of Soviet Russia were coordinated by the Labor and Defense Council (SLO), the chairman of which was V.I. Lenin. He also headed the Soviet government - the Council of People's Commissars (Sovnarkom).
They were opposed by those united under the Supreme Command of Admiral A.V. Kolchak armies of the Eastern Front (Siberian (Lieutenant General R. Gaida), Western (artillery general M.V. Khanzhin), Southern (Major General P.A. Belov) and Orenburg (Lieutenant General A.I. Dutov) , as well as the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the South of Russia (AFSR), Lieutenant General A.I. Denikin, who recognized the power of Kolchak (Dobrovolskaya (Lieutenant General V.Z. May-Maevsky), Donskaya (Lieutenant General V.I. Sidorin) subordinated to him) and the Caucasian (Lieutenant General P.N. Wrangel) troops) in the general direction of Petrograd were the troops of the Commander-in-Chief of the North-Western Front, Infantry General N.N. Yudenich and the Commander-in-Chief of the Northern Region, Lieutenant General E.K.
The period of greatest development of the Civil War
In the spring of 1919, attempts at combined attacks by the white fronts began. From that time on, military operations took the form of full-scale operations on a wide front, using all types of troops (infantry, cavalry, artillery), with the active assistance of aviation, tanks and armored trains. In March-May 1919, the offensive of the Eastern Front of Admiral Kolchak began, striking in divergent directions - to Vyatka-Kotlas, to connect with the Northern Front and to the Volga - to connect with the armies of General Denikin.
The troops of the Soviet Eastern Front, under the leadership of S.S. Kamenev and, mainly, the 5th Soviet Army, under the command of M.N. Tukhachevsky, by the beginning of June 1919, stopped the advance of the white armies by launching counter-attacks in the Southern Urals (near Buguruslan and Belebey) and in the Kama region.
In the summer of 1919, the offensive of the Armed Forces of the South of Russia (AFSR) began on Kharkov, Yekaterinoslav and Tsaritsyn. After the latter was occupied by the army of General Wrangel, on July 3, Denikin signed a directive on the “march against Moscow.” During July-October, the AFSR troops occupied most of Ukraine and the provinces of the Black Earth Center of Russia, stopping on the line Kyiv - Bryansk - Orel - Voronezh - Tsaritsyn. Almost simultaneously with the offensive of the AFSR on Moscow, the attack of the North-Western Army of General Yudenich on Petrograd began.
For Soviet Russia, the time of autumn 1919 became the most critical. Total mobilizations of communists and Komsomol members were carried out, the slogans “Everything for the defense of Petrograd” and “Everything for the defense of Moscow” were put forward. Thanks to control over the main railway lines converging towards the center of Russia, the Revolutionary Military Council of the Republic (RVSR) could transfer troops from one front to another. So, at the height of the fighting in the Moscow direction, several divisions were transferred from Siberia, as well as from the Western Front to the Southern Front and near Petrograd. At the same time, the white armies failed to establish a common anti-Bolshevik front (with the exception of contacts at the level of individual detachments between the Northern and Eastern Fronts in May 1919, as well as between the AFSR front and the Ural Cossack Army in August 1919). Thanks to the concentration of forces from different fronts by mid-October 1919 near Orel and Voronezh, the commander of the Southern Front, former Lieutenant General V.N. Egorov managed to create a strike group, the basis of which was parts of the Latvian and Estonian rifle divisions, as well as the 1st Cavalry Army under the command of S.M. Budyonny and K.E. Voroshilov. Counterattacks were launched on the flanks of the 1st Corps of the Volunteer Army, which was advancing on Moscow, under the command of Lieutenant General A.P. Kutepova. After stubborn fighting during October-November 1919, the front of the AFSR was broken, and a general retreat of the Whites from Moscow began. In mid-November, before reaching 25 km from Petrograd, units of the North-Western Army were stopped and defeated.
The military operations of 1919 were distinguished by the widespread use of maneuver. Large cavalry formations were used to break through the front and conduct raids behind enemy lines. In the white armies, Cossack cavalry was used in this capacity. The 4th Don Corps, specially formed for this purpose, under the command of Lieutenant General K.K. Mamantova in August-September made a deep raid from Tambov to the borders with the Ryazan province and Voronezh. Siberian Cossack Corps under the command of Major General P.P. Ivanova-Rinova broke through the red front near Petropavlovsk in early September. The “Chervonnaya Division” from the Southern Front of the Red Army raided the rear of the Volunteer Corps in October-November. By the end of 1919, the 1st Cavalry Army began its operations, advancing in the Rostov and Novocherkassk directions.
In January-March 1920, fierce battles unfolded in the Kuban. During operations on the river. Manych and under Art. Egorlykskaya took place the last major equestrian battles in world history. Up to 50 thousand horsemen from both sides took part in them. Their result was the defeat of the AFSR and evacuation to the Crimea, on ships of the Black Sea Fleet. In Crimea, in April 1920, the white troops were renamed the “Russian Army”, the command of which was taken by Lieutenant General P.N. Wrangel.
The defeat of the white armies. End of the Civil War
At the turn of 1919-1920. was finally defeated by A.V. Kolchak. His army was scattering, and partisan detachments were operating in the rear. The Supreme Ruler was captured, and in February 1920 in Irkutsk he was shot by the Bolsheviks.
In January 1920 N.N. Yudenich, who had undertaken two unsuccessful campaigns against Petrograd, announced the dissolution of his North-Western Army.
After the defeat of Poland, the army of P.N., locked in Crimea. Wrangel was doomed. Having carried out a short offensive north of Crimea, it went on the defensive. The forces of the Southern Front of the Red Army (commander M.V. Frunze) defeated the Whites in October - November 1920. The 1st and 2nd Cavalry armies made a significant contribution to the victory over them. Almost 150 thousand people, military and civilians, left Crimea.
Fighting in 1920-1922. were distinguished by small territories (Tavria, Transbaikalia, Primorye), smaller troops and already included elements of trench warfare. During the defense, fortifications were used (white lines on Perekop and Chongar in Crimea in 1920, Kakhovsky fortified area of the 13th Soviet Army on the Dnieper in 1920, built by the Japanese and transferred to the white Volochaevsky and Spassky fortified areas in Primorye in 1921-1922. ). To break through, long-term artillery preparation was used, as well as flamethrowers and tanks.
Victory over P.N. Wrangel did not yet mean the end of the Civil War. Now the main opponents of the Reds were not the Whites, but the Greens, as the representatives of the peasant insurgent movement called themselves. The most powerful peasant movement developed in the Tambov and Voronezh provinces. It began in August 1920 after the peasants were given an impossible task of food appropriation. The rebel army, commanded by the Socialist Revolutionary A.S. Antonov, managed to overthrow the Bolshevik power in several counties. At the end of 1920, units of the regular Red Army led by M.N. were sent to fight the rebels. Tukhachevsky. However, fighting the partisan peasant army turned out to be even more difficult than fighting the White Guards in open battle. Only in June 1921 was the Tambov uprising suppressed, and A.S. Antonov was killed in a shootout. During the same period, the Reds managed to win a final victory over Makhno.
The high point of the Civil War in 1921 was the uprising of Kronstadt sailors, who joined the protests of St. Petersburg workers demanding political freedoms. The uprising was brutally suppressed in March 1921.
During 1920-1921 units of the Red Army made several campaigns in Transcaucasia. As a result, independent states were liquidated on the territory of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia and Soviet power was established.
To fight the White Guards and interventionists in the Far East, the Bolsheviks created a new state in April 1920 - the Far Eastern Republic (FER). For two years, the army of the republic drove Japanese troops out of Primorye and defeated several White Guard chieftains. After this, at the end of 1922, the Far Eastern Republic became part of the RSFSR.
During the same period, overcoming the resistance of the Basmachi, who fought to preserve medieval traditions, the Bolsheviks won a victory in Central Asia. Although a few rebel groups were active until the 1930s.
Results of the Civil War
The main result of the Civil War in Russia was the establishment of Bolshevik power. Among the reasons for the Reds' victory are:
1. The Bolsheviks’ use of the political sentiments of the masses, powerful propaganda (clear goals, prompt resolution of issues in the world and on earth, exit from the world war, justification of terror by the fight against the country’s enemies);
2. Control by the Council of People's Commissars of the central provinces of Russia, where the main military enterprises were located;
3. Disunity of anti-Bolshevik forces (lack of common ideological positions; struggle “against something”, but not “for something”; territorial fragmentation).
The total population losses during the Civil War amounted to 12-13 million people. Almost half of them are victims of famine and mass epidemics. Emigration from Russia became widespread. About 2 million people left their homeland.
The country's economy was in a catastrophic state. The cities were depopulated. Industrial production fell by 5-7 times compared to 1913, agricultural production by one third.
The territory of the former Russian Empire disintegrated. The largest new state was the RSFSR.
Military equipment during the Civil War
New types of military equipment were successfully used on the battlefields of the Civil War, some of which appeared in Russia for the first time. For example, in units of the AFSR, as well as the Northern and Northwestern armies, English and French tanks were actively used. The Red Guards, who did not have the skills to fight them, often retreated from their positions. However, during the assault on the Kakhovsky fortified area in October 1920, most of the white tanks were hit by artillery, and after the necessary repairs they were included in the Red Army, where they were used until the early 1930s. The presence of armored vehicles was considered a prerequisite for infantry support, both in street battles and during front-line operations.
The need for strong fire support during horse attacks gave rise to the emergence of such an original means of combat as horse-drawn carts - light two-wheeled carts with a machine gun mounted on them. Carts were first used in the rebel army of N.I. Makhno, but later began to be used in all large cavalry formations of the White and Red armies.
Air squads interacted with the ground forces. An example of a joint operation is the defeat of the cavalry corps of D.P. Rednecks by aviation and infantry of the Russian Army in June 1920. Aviation was also used for bombing fortified positions and reconnaissance. During the period of “echelon warfare” and later, armored trains, the number of which reached several dozen per army, operated together with infantry and cavalry on both sides. Special detachments were created from them.
Recruiting armies during the Civil War
In the conditions of the Civil War and the destruction of the state mobilization apparatus, the principles of recruiting armies changed. Only the Siberian Army of the Eastern Front was recruited in 1918 upon mobilization. Most units of the AFSR, as well as the Northern and Northwestern armies, were replenished from volunteers and prisoners of war. Volunteers were the most reliable in combat.
The Red Army was also characterized by the predominance of volunteers (initially, only volunteers were accepted into the Red Army, and admission required “proletarian origin” and a “recommendation” from the local party cell). The predominance of mobilized and prisoners of war became widespread at the final stage of the Civil War (in the ranks of the Russian Army of General Wrangel, as part of the 1st Cavalry in the Red Army).
The White and Red armies were distinguished by their small numbers and, as a rule, the discrepancy between the actual composition of military units and their staff (for example, divisions of 1000-1500 bayonets, regiments of 300 bayonets, a shortage of up to 35-40% was even approved).
In the command of the White armies, the role of young officers increased, and in the Red Army - party nominees. The institution of political commissars, which was completely new for the armed forces (first appeared under the Provisional Government in 1917), was established. The average age of the command level in the positions of division chiefs and corps commanders was 25-35 years.
The absence of an order system in the AFSR and the awarding of successive ranks led to the fact that in 1.5-2 years officers progressed from lieutenants to generals.
In the Red Army, with a relatively young command staff, a significant role was played by former officers of the General Staff who planned strategic operations (former lieutenant generals M.D. Bonch-Bruevich, V.N. Egorov, former colonels I.I. Vatsetis, S.S. . Kamenev, F.M. Afanasyev, A.N. Stankevich, etc.).
Military-political factor in the Civil War
The specificity of the civil war, as a military-political confrontation between whites and reds, was also that military operations were often planned under the influence of certain political factors. In particular, the offensive of the Eastern Front of Admiral Kolchak in the spring of 1919 was undertaken in anticipation of quick diplomatic recognition of him as the Supreme Ruler of Russia by the Entente countries. And the offensive of General Yudenich’s North-Western Army on Petrograd was caused not only by the hope of quickly occupying the “cradle of the revolution”, but also by fears of concluding a peace treaty between Soviet Russia and Estonia. In this case, Yudenich’s army lost its base. The offensive of the Russian army of General Wrangel in Tavria in the summer of 1920 was supposed to draw back part of the forces from the Soviet-Polish front.
Many operations of the Red Army, regardless of strategic reasons and military potential, were also of a purely political nature (for the sake of the so-called “triumph of the world revolution”). So, for example, in the summer of 1919, the 12th and 14th armies of the Southern Front were supposed to be sent to support the revolutionary uprising in Hungary, and the 7th and 15th armies were supposed to establish Soviet power in the Baltic republics. In 1920, during the war with Poland, troops of the Western Front, under the command of M.N. Tukhachevsky, after operations to defeat the Polish armies in Western Ukraine and Belarus, transferred their operations to the territory of Poland, counting on the creation of a pro-Soviet government here. The actions of the 11th and 12th Soviet armies in Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia in 1921 were of a similar nature. At the same time, under the pretext of the defeat of units of the Asian Cavalry Division of Lieutenant General R.F. Ungern-Sternberg, troops of the Far Eastern Republic and the 5th Soviet Army were introduced into the territory of Mongolia and a socialist regime was established (the first in the world after Soviet Russia).
During the Civil War, it became a practice to carry out operations dedicated to anniversaries (the beginning of the assault on Perekop by troops of the Southern Front under the command of M.V. Frunze on November 7, 1920, on the anniversary of the 1917 revolution).
The military art of the Civil War became a striking example of the combination of traditional and innovative forms of strategy and tactics in the difficult conditions of the Russian “Troubles” of 1917-1922. It determined the development of Soviet military art (in particular, the use of large cavalry formations) in the following decades, until the beginning of World War II.